Saturday, August 8, 2020

Damn the Torpedoes!

So now we have some answers to some pressing questions: Justin Trudeau isn't resigning; Bill Morneau probably is going to get shuffled (but not because of Charitygate, and not immediately); Katie Telford isn't getting fired either; and the Liberals are going to try and kill the summer smear campaign once and for all with an info dump — and a money dump to cushion the blow.

In fact, not only is Trudeau not quitting, but according to a new report, it's quite the contrary: he's hoping to be Canada's 21st century FDR, despite the fascists, the communists, and the regional secessionists attacking him on all sides. Because it's... 1932.
One insider with knowledge of the prime minister’s thinking said Trudeau is not looking at provoking a fall election with the economy still in a crucial “restart” phase, but he is looking toward the “recovery” phase. That source suggested the more likely option is a budget in the new year that would lay out the bolder plan.

Interesting to note, podcaster Mo Amir of This is VanColour interviewed progressive columnist Nora Loreto who predicted that something like this would happen. According to Mo, her predictions tend to be pretty on-target:

[T]his has been a very convenient crisis for the Liberals in some way. But also very inconvenient because it has made opposition parties and their supporters very, very rabid. So I imagine the Liberals will make a hard pivot to the left, 'cause I don't think that they can pivot to the right out of this and appeal to people. So in the next coming days and weeks, I imagine we will see a big funding announcement of some sort. I would guess it's related to parents and childcare. But it really could be anything. So that's my prediction.

Nora knows her stuff, because "insider Liberals" are saying pretty much the same thing, and Nora made this prediction before the Star article came out.  But Nora is also right that the opposition are livid, because they had to resort to this manufactured nontroversy since their policies can't compete with the Liberals' — and they damn well know it.

Skippy Poilievre, in fact, is already indicating he's going to help Petey Mac-n-Cheese run the next election on a pro-oil austerity platform. So much for "progressive conservatism." The most that the adventures of Pete & Pete will offer is lip service to social issues while keeping the likes of Derek Sloan and other crackpots in caucus in the name of "unity." But they're still simping for the petro-plutocrats and advancing an agenda of Trudeau sucks because Trudeau bad:

Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre ... says the government, spooked by the fallout of WE, aims to run a campaign on “this fairy tale that you can just continue to pour free money out of airplanes.” He said the Liberal government would be wrong to pursue even more borrowing and spending, because the “monstrous deficits” being racked up are going to continue to weigh down growth and slow down the economy, not stimulate it.

“That will be a recipe for a longer recession, perhaps even a depression,” Poilievre said in an interview. “We think it’s time for “free-market stimulus,” he said. The government should “fast-track” environmental approvals for about a dozen energy projects worth a total of about $20 billion and “unleash the productive forces of the private sector.”

Except, of course, when the "productive forces of the private sector" are leveraged to run a student aid program during a once-in-a-century pandemic. But silly me for expecting consistency from a pigeon shitting on a chessboard. By the way, money out of airplanes? Has he not heard of the Marshall Plan?

The NDP are similarly incensed because Trudeau's ambitious agenda and out-of-the-box thinking has rendered them irrelevant. They're basically Linux fanboys complaining out of jealousy that Apple took their code and made a user-friendly distro that's actually proven popular, while they can't get much more than 2% of the market share. So to punish Apple, they go help out Microsoft. What I'm getting at is, the Jobs-focused prime minister has struck a balance between Conservative petro-privatization and Blue Grit wallet-clutching, and the failed Sovietization agenda that NDP tryhards and cosplay college communist prolefeeders (CCCPs) fantasize about, the latter of which has little to show for it besides the Yugo, Cuban cigars, and the game of Tetris. And no, for the 16,777,216th time, Fidel Castro did not produce Justin Trudeau, even as much as those same NDP tryhards legitimately wish he had.

If the NDP sabotages this out of abject hatred and petty jealousy of Trudeau like they did to Paul Martin with another kamikaze suicide mission, they will kill Canada and they will deservedly be wiped out. "Nach Trudeau, Uns" won't happen any more than Bush or Trump ushered in the glorious proletarian revolution in the United States. A lot of Labour Brexiters felt the same way and now look at the mess. If an election is triggered over the bogus ethics report or an "unpalatable" budget, either the opposition will get crushed, or the Liberals will get "punished" for minor stumbles in the grander scheme of things, but Canadians will suffer for generations the way Americans will have to spend decades digging out from Trump. Trudeau knows they have nothing to run on but smearing him and hyperfocusing on nonsense, so he's ignoring polls and headlines and just doing what he needs to do.

As for headlines, it seems a foregone conclusion that (unfortunately) there will be more. But the Liberals wouldn't be doing this info dump if they had something to hide. Nor would Trudeau have testified, which clearly seems to have thrown the opposition off their initial game plan, which was to smear him as secretive. The question then becomes whether or not the public has already tuned this out, seeing Trudeau's testimony as the big media-driven climax and the rest just noise after the fact, like acid reflux burps through the week(end) after you've thrown up too big of a chicken parmigiana dinner. That question won't be answered until, well, the big info dump, which is said to happen much sooner than later:

It may be too soon to say whether the political hit from the defunct student volunteer program will last. Political controversies have a way of seeming to die down only to flare again in the public’s mind as new revelations emerge.

Sources tell the Star that thousands of documents related to the WE affair that the Liberal government transferred to a parliamentary committee are to be publicly released on Monday if not sooner.

Beyond the headlines, however, Trudeau and his inner circle are weighing how to roll out bigger, bolder changes aimed at bolstering Canada’s competitive position post-pandemic, and move past short-term solutions to the crisis.

But as our friend Ottlib says, ignore polls and watch the parties to see how things look to be unfolding. He seems to have an insight into Justin Trudeau's similar line of thinking. Trudeau is working on more pressing issues while the opposition are flailing their arms and shouting at the top of their lungs out of desperation. Polls in between writ periods are just temperature checks, not prognostications, as I have to keep reminding myself. When the actual campaign rolls around, and campaigns do matter, the Liberals will have an ambitious platform to run on, as Stephen Best points out:

It's not lost on me that while the @JustinTrudeau government (despite declines in recent polls) is building a positive record to run on in the next election campaign, the opposition parties are not. They're not even trying to give Canadians good reasons to vote for them.

If a forced non-confidence vote happens in September or October, the public will be infuriated over going to vote in a pandemic and before the Americans do. The Conservatives admit to having nothing to run on but their same old tired agenda of austerity, oil, and most crucially, ignoring the concerns of women and marginalized people by fluffing off Gender-Based Analysis as "SJW" stuff unimportant to the brass tacks of the economy. That, plus "Trudeau is bad." The NDP admit to having nothing but a Xerox copy of whatever the Liberals have, but as the party that would just help the Conservatives by splitting the vote, rather than actually forming a government of their own. That, plus "Trudeau is bad."

That leaves Blanchet and the Bloc, who have nothing but, well, rien, except in French. Oh, and flailing their arms about Stupid Sponsorgate to cover for far more disturbing allegations towards their party leader. (While their provincial media oligarchs contract push pollsters to help them do just that.) That, plus "Trudeau est mauvais."

Speaking of controversies and allegations, though, the final pressing question is the fate of Bill Morneau. It appears likely that he will be shuffled soon but not because of Charitygate per se. Charitygate just seems to have given Justin Trudeau the impetus to push sooner rather than later. When exactly, however, is anyone's guess. But the reason Morneau may end up in a new position is because he is somewhat reluctant to embrace the bolder initiatives called upon by his colleagues at the table:

One Liberal insider said the Liberals will not be pinned down by Conservative calls “for austerity.” ... If Trudeau plans to reject calls to rein in spending, what is the future for his Finance Minister Bill Morneau? Is he the right person in the job at this time?

By many insider accounts, Morneau has long been the minister at the cabinet table who said no to myriad requests by his more spendthrift colleagues.

In fact, several in the Liberal government say he deserves credit for ensuring the government had the fiscal room to manoeuvre in the past five months — despite Conservative objections to the contrary.

Trudeau is said to retain confidence in Morneau and “stands by” his finance minister, in the words of one.

But sources said Trudeau is definitely considering whether he has the right people in the right jobs for the months ahead, sources said.

And so far, while most expect a cabinet shuffle of some kind before the next election, right now no one knows where Trudeau has landed on those decisions.

No one knows because the prizefighter does not telegraph his punches. The critics of the man in the arena may set about to reading tea leaves and trying to throw him off his game, but he remains focused and doesn't throw in the towel. In fact, he's a very hoopy frood who knows exactly where his towel is. He might not have the answers to everything, but he did win Election 42.

But Morneau's fate might actually be the penultimate question. The real climax to all of this is whether the Canadian electorate will discard a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a transformative post-pandemic Canada just to "own the Libs" and give Harper's dimwitted doorman the keys to the Bates Motel.

I for one hope not. After 2016 and the relentless "Crooked Hillary" tag-team ambush coming from both Trump and Sanders and the complicit media, I can't be too sure. And Canada's ruling class that owns the media and manufactures the message, is hell-bent on destroying the Liberals to ensure that the "Maple New Deal" ends up deader than dried leaves in the hazy shade of winter. They would throw their own mother under the bus to line their own pockets. Which is why they're projecting so hard, because they can't fathom why Justin wouldn't do the same to Margaret.

But all we know so far, are the known unknowns, and proofs with no proof.

As a famous Yogi once said, predictions are hard, especially about the future. But at least we do know that the good guys have a plan. My sincerest hope is that it's enough to be a Hail Maggie Pass.

Carpe diem, my captain.

Fear is the mind-killer, the path to the dark side. There is nothing to fear but fear itself.

Can Trudeau beat Harper again?

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About (er, Aboot, eh)

The world needs more Canada. Especially the elephant in the bed. I'm an American observer peeking over the hedge, writing about Canadian politics and culture — including foreign relations with its nearest (and most unpredictable) neighbour — from my unlucky perch south of the 49th parallel.

Frequent Former (for now?) commenter at Wonkette (as the Girl Guide, resident south-of-the-border Trudeau stan) and as Jackie at Simon's blog.

Unapologetic supporter of the Liberal Party of Canada and Team Trudeau (aka the "Tru Grits"), and the Democratic Party USA. (Yes, unapologetic. I'll never say soory for that.)

Proud "Liberal Psycho," according to irascible Maclean's douchebag Stephen Maher, the other political white guy named Maher as annoying and abusive as Bill. Honoured to be a member of Jake Tapper's TruAnon.

I also write The Canadian Fishwrap Project, a media criticism blog. The #CdnMediaFailed, so I'mma keep calling 'em out.

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