I've written here previously that I'm actually hoping for an election sooner rather than later. It's constitutionally required in the U.S. In Canada... it's relatively up in the air. Kind of like COVID itself.
My hoped-for outcome is obvious. But I'm not alone in forecasting the possibility that it could very well blow up in the opposition's face.
Evan Scrimshaw of Lean Tossup is mad at Trudeau and wants him to quit. However, he still believes that the Liberals going into an election with him as leader would mean a victory. But he has written twice already about why that likelihood paradoxically increases in spite of whatever the pre-writ polls show, if the opposition brings down the government while a second wave of COVID is in the making:
God help the opposition if they push for an election while COVID is hitting a second wave, because that will be, bluntly, a fucking disaster for them. Stupidity and greed are the two vices least respected by Canadians, and the opposition will be crushed for playing politics with people’s health. And if the opposition were to attempt to circumvent that allegation by trying to push for expanded mail voting, it could have the effect of boosting turnout amongst young voters and Indigenous Canadians – which would not help the Tories or the Bloc. Trying to push an election if the Virus isn’t mostly under control will be a problem, which is why I was always skeptical the Liberals would go early (pre-WE).
And I never thought Trudeau would trigger an early election either, because he's not opportunistic and knows it could very well backfire, as it did for David Peterson provincially in Ontario in 1990. He has been very clear that he is listening to the science. The science says this isn't over yet.
But the Conservatives and the Bloc don't give a shit about the pandemic. Thousands attended an anti-mask protest in Montreal. That leaves the NDP, who have continually shown throughout this debacle their willingness to sleep with the enemy. They have no money but I wouldn't put it past them to go for broke.
If they want to go right ahead and do it, Evan says go ahead and roll the dice:
On the prospect of an early election, our view is that the man who wields the knife will never hold the crown when it is all said and done. A pandemic election caused by the opposition will be a disaster for that opposition, and while I would love a chance to call another election correctly this fall, it would be a disgrace for the opposition to drag the voters back to the polls after a year during this period of health uncertainty. Be careful what you wish for.
"The man who wields the knife will never hold the crown when all is said and done." Justin Trudeau knows that. The question is whether his knife-wielding enemies do. Personally, I hope they're just stupid or grubby enough to end up knifing themselves.
I keep referring back to and writing about these snippets to try and shore up fading hope for what this deliberate attack holds for the future of mon premier ministre d'amour. It may seem obsessive but it's cathartic to me. Self-care is important in this pandemic and in a time of social and political strife more generally, especially for someone living under the despotic regime of Donald Trump (and on a personal level, in a Trumpian abusive household myself).
I feel at times like I'm blogging about my favourite TV show where the heroic protagonist is always under siege by his enemies, a sort of West Wing Canadian parliament version. And right now, the lead actor staying in his role for the long term is all I have to hang onto. I don't want him to be replaced or the show to be cancelled.
But of course, it's not a TV show. It's very real, and has very real consequences for the people living there. I'm thinking, however, that a September season premiere out on the hustings could end up being better overall for the good guys in this scenario.
Then if he wants to, and only if he wants to, the romantic lead can choose to continue in his role or take a bow. He has served his audience well and as far as I'm concerned deserves an award.
