Monday, August 10, 2020

Split Screen Sadness

 

I had said in an earlier post that polls are for dogs and can easily be manipulated to reach a certain outcome. That said, it's fascinating nonetheless (if very nerve-wracking) to see what conclusions the juicers are squeezing out.

This latest brouhaha continues to be confusing yet partially revealing in how the pollsters are hashing things out.

A new ARI poll — a firm which, again, I should point out, tends to favour the Cons — appears to be in this case more favourable to Justin Trudeau and his Liberals than Leger (Bloc) or even Abacus (ostensibly non-partisan but with a Con bent as of late).

It's not great but it's not catastrophic either, which is what causes me to scratch my head (and a pause of hope that I'm nonetheless fearful is a false sense of security). It also puts recent voter-intention surveys into context: again, outside the writ period, Liberal ups and downs aren't necessarily prognostications, especially if for right now they're being "parked" with the Bloc and NDP and the Cons haven't gained.

But it also reveals some worrisome fault lines in #cdnpoli that are disturbingly similar to fractures in the United States.
Perceptions of both the intent of the Prime Minister and the seriousness of this issue are driven to a great extent by partisanship. Those who supported the CPC in the last federal election are near-unanimous in their negative appraisal of the situation. Nine-in-ten say that this is a serious and significant issue ... [while] half of past Liberals (54%) do feel that this issue has been overblown.

And then there's this, which is mildly encouraging on one front yet troublesome in others:

The Prime Minister’s personal popularity has taken a hit in recent weeks but has not plummeted to where it was during the SNC-Lavalin scandal or during the days after revelations that he had previously worn blackface. Trudeau continues to perform to a level of majority approval on the issue Canadians care about most: COVID-19. On this measure, Trudeau’s past supporters are in lockstep. Nine-in-ten say he has done well in stewarding the nation, while a significant 72 per cent of New Democrats agree. Just one-in-five CPC voters offer praise for the Prime Minister on this file.

So the Conservatives, who are either just meh on the severity of COVID-19 or think it's a Liberal mind-control hoax, have riled up their cult to a level of "Lock Hillary Up," while everyone else says that Trudeau may have either done a bad or simply made an error, but it's not significant enough to want him gone or, worse, in jail. At the same time, while Liberals and even Dippers (soft ones anyway, the type who could "go strategic" in an actual election, and not the hardcore tankies) are keeping appraised of the situation, they have more pressing concerns like, you know, an actual fucking pandemic.

As per usual, the statistics are skewed by the population that continues to drag societies down:

Men, particularly those over the age of 34, and past Conservative voters see something more serious at play and say that a criminal investigation is necessary. This group is of the view the government may be ultimately brought down by the scandal. ... The most engaged segment include men 55 years of age and older and those who supported the Conservative Party in last year’s federal election.

This segment of society does not deserve the franchise. Women are more forgiving and see the bigger picture. Men are myopic and just want punishment and control. It doesn't surprise me at all that the Cons (and the Bernie Bro Dippers on the committee) have focused their attention almost entirely upon the women in the government: Bardish Chagger, Rachel Wernick, Katie Telford, and soon Mary Ng and Carla Qualtrough. Plus, family relations: Margaret Trudeau, Sophie Trudeau, and Bill Morneau's adopted daughter Grace Acan.

Women don't think this is a significant enough issue to want to take the keys away from the feminist prime minister and give it to the macho anti-choice austerity party. But men don't think straight. Men should not have the right to vote. If only women voted, conservatives would never win an election again.

And that's how polarized even Canada has become: Not only is Justin Trudeau himself the country's most controversial lightning rod, but politics itself isn't just a bare-knuckle hockey fight over this or that issue. Politics has become a battle of the sexes — and a literal existential fight for survival.

Which makes the media's obsession with this all that more concerning and irresponsible, and revealing of who is in charge in the newsrooms and where their biases lie.

But at least there are some pockets of the populace where sanity still prevails.

Can Trudeau beat Harper again?

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Why, I know a fine fancy letter called FUDDLE. I use it in spelling Miss Fuddle-dee-Duddle. And, oh! What a bird-of-a-bird-of-a-bird-of! Her tail is the longest that’s ever been heard of.

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About (er, Aboot, eh)

The world needs more Canada. Especially the elephant in the bed. I'm an American observer peeking over the hedge, writing about Canadian politics and culture — including foreign relations with its nearest (and most unpredictable) neighbour — from my unlucky perch south of the 49th parallel.

Frequent Former (for now?) commenter at Wonkette (as the Girl Guide, resident south-of-the-border Trudeau stan) and as Jackie at Simon's blog.

Unapologetic supporter of the Liberal Party of Canada and Team Trudeau (aka the "Tru Grits"), and the Democratic Party USA. (Yes, unapologetic. I'll never say soory for that.)

Proud "Liberal Psycho," according to irascible Maclean's douchebag Stephen Maher, the other political white guy named Maher as annoying and abusive as Bill. Honoured to be a member of Jake Tapper's TruAnon.

I also write The Canadian Fishwrap Project, a media criticism blog. The #CdnMediaFailed, so I'mma keep calling 'em out.

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