I hate rollercoasters. Never actually been on one, but I know that my weak constitution couldn't handle it. So when things started getting rocky at the top of this 44th Canadian federal election, I panicked and bailed. I even deleted my blog! But surprise, surprise... he won....?! Holy Fuddle Duddle!
. . .
On election night, Chantal Hébert mused that this was an election nobody wanted that had a result that nobody wanted. I can see where she's coming from, but can't entirely agree. Sure, Justin Trudeau no doubt sought a majority government at the end of all this, but his friend and cohort Gerald Butts countenanced that a win is a win and it's as simple as that.
The real losers in my estimation were the Canadian media hounds, who'd been clamoring for this election practically since the last one ended, and then were quick to pivot and blame Trudeau for it rather than themselves.
The other losers were the Canadian pollsters who are so entangled with that media complex that they made themselves the story. Like Shachi Kurl of the Fungus Reid Institute, who pretty much was the sole culprit of costing Trudeau his majority with her "torqued" question at the English Language Debate that had the effect of emboldening Yves Blanc Cheque and the Quebec separatists.
But I want everyone to note that again: It wasn't the Errant Old Fool who held Trudeau to a status-quo minority. It wasn't even Jagmeet the creepy meme candidate Singh. It was the Bloc what "blocked" him. And even still, once the mail-in ballots come through he's still likely to be on par for a net gain of seats.
So who were the winners of the night? Well, besides Justin Trudeau himself, and (more or less) the Canadian people who voted to keep a progressive government that will lead them out of the pandemic and put in all kinds of other goodies (assuming the "progressive" opposition parties don't get ahead of themselves again and gum up the works). I mentioned that the pollster-media complex were losers. That goes for everyone except for a little-known cult-favourite moneyball analyst by the name of Evan Scrimshaw, who unexpectedly became the "emotional support animal" for panicked Liberals over the course of the campaign. Who is Evan Scrimshaw? Think Nate Silver with a healthy heaping of Hunter S. Thompson. In his view, this election was a cold and broken Hallelujah, but a Hallelujah nonetheless.
This election was Evan's to lose way back at the end of the 43rd election in 2019, when he made an incredibly bold shot call that the Conservatives couldn't win the election afterward. He got flack for an overly confident projection on the U.S. election in 2020 that both caused him to doubt himself and to end up parting ways with his onetime colleagues at the Lean Tossup aggregator site. So when Evan doubled down on his shot call for his native Canada, even the folks at home were skeptical that he hadn't "humbled himself" and learned from getting it wrong the last time around.
As it turns out, the U.S. and its northern neighbour are two separate beasts, at least in terms of polling and political structure (Canada does not have "gerrymandering" per se, for instance, or widespread voter suppression that skews the polls). They share a lot of other similarities, but not this one. Based on the data available to him, and his own knowledge of oddsmaking, Evan turned out to be right.
And because he went against the grain in predicting a Liberal win with Quebec deciding the majority or not, Evan will never get paid the big bucks from the morally and intellectually bankrupt Canadian pollster-media complex, because he has committed the sin of daring to be bullish on the Liberals and Justin Trudeau. The funny thing is he doesn't even like Trudeau. He's just being honest about data.
On that note, Canadian media is even bigger of a loser, because 99% of their mainstream "pundits" suck, while the best researchers and experts are toiling in relative obscurity, delivering facts as independent journalists or just ordinary tweeps. Shit for them, and for Canada because their fourth estate is a decrepit eyesore, but at least every so often they get to go home with their tails between their legs rationalizing a bad call for their echo chambers and no one else. You've got egg on your face, you big disgrace, waving yellow journalism all over the place.
You got owned by a bunch of ragtag bloggers and a twenty-four-year-old bookie with a Substack.
Take a bow and take the buyout. You suck.
The next question is what happens to each of the party leaders after this "result that nobody wanted." Well, it's plainly obvious that the Green Party stand-in who isn't Elizabeth May is going to be looking for a new line of work, and quite likely, so will the Errant Old Fool. Jagmeet the Tik Tok influencer's career might even be up in the air; he only gained maybe three? more seats out of all this. Frenchy McCokeface will probably stick around, while Mad Max... uh, I'm not even going to go there.
That leaves Justin Trudeau, the elder statesman nearing fifty.
What can I say? I, of course, love the man. Many still do; others are just "meh" while others hate him on a visceral (and irrational) level. Personally I think it'll be up to his decision, but who knows? There's been a lot of talk that the Liberals have an unstated "Pearson rule" whereby a leader who fails to convert a majority government twice gets turfed for someone who can. And we still don't know if the Liberal caucus is going to give themselves the option to do so, through activating the "Reform Act" at their first meeting after this election.
Ironically Pearson vacated that post for none other than Pierre Trudeau.
Apologies for the mixed sports metaphor, but if you ask me (and no one has), for the Liberals to turf Trudeau fils after he won them a hat trick, even though the past two results haven't been as stellar as they might have wanted, would be like firing Tom Brady because he won two Super Bowls by a field goal rather than a blowout. Which is kinda what Bill Belichick did, and how's that working out for him?
Plus, the landscape is very different now versus the nineteen-seventies when Papa Trudeau was in office. There was no Quebec-specific party and the Conservatives were actually progressive. Pierre Trudeau, tough has he could be, was a bookish introvert with a sharp tongue who probably would have crumbled in the social media era.
And it's not really clear who else the Liberals have who could get them as close to majority as they've already come. Chrystia Freeland is widely presumed the heir(ess) apparent, but Canada doesn't have a good track record of rewarding female leadership of any party. Mark Carney? Er, let's see if he wins a seat first, or even bothers to run at all. Some Liberals think he's the second coming of Michael Ignatieff and we know where that led to. Trudeau may be polarizing (I say that rather than "unpopular") but he's not going to take them down to bronze medal status. He's already won gold three times as it is!
Eventually they'll find someone, I mean they'll have to, unless Justin decides/manages to stick around long enough that Xavier runs against Ben Harper after kicking his ass in the boxing ring. But I digress.
(Someone will have to ask Evan what he's got for the over/under on that one.)
For now, it's time to let the dust settle and the hangover wear off, and breathe a sigh of relief before we head back to the grind later this month or early in October. Canada is safe for now. Justin Trudeau has his job back. Next time he'd be wiser to let the opposition bring down the government and let them wear the election, after the Conservatives install Skippy or some other obnoxious wingnut who couldn't get elected as dog catcher. For all anyone knows they might not bother for the next four years.
But predictions are hard, especially about the future. As Gerry Butts says, the main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing. And the main thing right now... is that Dearest Justin is still the one.
Ain't nothin' better. We beat the odds together.
