In a tentative sign that some in the opposition might be growing up just a little bit, Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh have signed an agreement to keep the Liberals in power until 2025. So what does this mean going forward? Well, if a week is a long time in politics, three years is an eternity...
. . .
So first and foremost, what this is and what this isn't, in the most basic definition of terminology. Despite what the Cons are howling about, a confidence and supply agreement (or CASA for short, ironic since it takes place in the House of Commons) is not a "coalition" per se, nor is it anything approaching communism, a "basic dictatorship," or Sharia Law. (Shania Law, however, is another matter.)
A "coalition" proper would have Jagmeet and other NDP MPs become official members of the government cabinet (ministers of such-and-such subject matter portfolio, like defence or housing or the Minister of Silly Walks). They're not (and perhaps all for the better). What they do share is an understanding with the government that shared policy priorities need to get done, and that requires money. Since the Liberals don't, by themselves, have the minimum required threshold to call themselves a majority government (159; they need 170), in order to pass budgets, they need at least 11 other MPs to support them.
It's simply easier for the Liberals to do that if they already have an agreement with one other party, versus having to tailor their legislation to satisfy either the NDP or the Bloc (the Cons will never be satisfied for as long as a Trudeau simply exists; he could advance a simple nonbinding motion declaring puppies to be cute and kicking them a bad thing and the cons would vote against it). So all this does is simply formalize and streamline what was already happening with a de facto handshake agreement. It allows the prime minister to govern without being hamstrung by flying pigeons or MAGA banshees.
And what they've agreed to work on together is a pretty big deal. The plan is to make Canadians' lives better as the pandemic fades, with long sought-after goals like a public pharmacare and dental care program (pharmacare being public coverage for medications), plus more robust packages to tackle climate change, Reconciliation, and the hot potato that is housing affordability.
Here's the full text from the Prime Minister's website, titled "Delivering for Canadians Now."
And here's this morning's press conference, straight from the big man on the parliamentary campus himself.
Now, you're going to be hearing and reading a lot of "interpretations" about this from the usual feckless pundits over the next... well, three years, at least. Many of them, reflexively cynical; some, just batshit insane. So what, besides communism, Sharia Law, a global takeover by the World Economic Forum, or anything else from the bowels of Infowars and Ruble Media, is this not, even though it may seem that way to the usual feckless pundits?
Well, for starts: It's not really about Jagmeet Singh collecting his six-year pension.
But on a much, much bigger note: It's definitely not about Justin Trudeau looking for an "off-ramp" to resign and "pass the torch." As he, himself, stated for what seems like the 16,777,216th time at the press conference today.
Now I am not all that fond of Paul Wells at all, both for his "Resistance" farce lauding the supposed strength of the recalcitrant con premiers, and the risible "Spite and Malice" hagiography of the Brutus and Cassius drama queens at the centre of the SNC-Blahblah affair. (He has since quitfired himself from Maclean's and gone freelance, apparently.) But I will make note of one thing he is famous for saying in his eponymous "rules" of Canadian politics: If everyone in the Ottawa bubble "knows" something, that means the opposite is most likely true.
(Otherwise known as the George Costanza rule of Canadian politics.)
So everyone in the Ottawa bubble "knows" for certain that Justin Trudeau won't be running again, even despite him having answered that question "a number of times" as the man himself said in that clip. Knowing just how prone to Costanza syndrome his colleagues in the Canadian media are, Wells acknowledges the PM's agency in his response to the deal in the Globe, indicating that no one knows the real answer to that question better than the man himself:
Everyone will be saying Mr. Trudeau has arranged for an orderly transition to a new leader. Maybe. It’s simply impossible to know: Leaders who get to choose the date of their retirement don’t usually drop hints beforehand. It’s as easy to believe that, having bought time, Mr. Trudeau will just start shopping for more time. (He said in Tuesday’s news conference that he plans to run in the next election. Of course, any leader would say that, until he says something different. As I say, it’s impossible to know.) But in the meanwhile, a deal with the NDP will make it easier to govern the way he wants.
Or maybe listen to those who know him best, and who talk to outlets outside the Ottawa bubble. In the language of Molière, that is, and to the usually superior French-language media that reported this past week that no, he isn't going anywhere and it's not just a public show for the cameras. He has actually been quite firm on this matter with members of cabinet and caucus, and lo and behold, nobody is actually angling to push him out. (I'll have a separate post about this soon enough. For now, you can read my Twitter thread going through highlights of the article with a fine-tooth comb.)
So Justin Trudeau has not only outmaneuvered the cons (who are completely rudderless and caught in a divisive Groundhog Day "leadership" farce of their own making) but the "pundits" with this agreement. He may very well come to match his father's length of tenure, despite any number of wishcasted political obituaries coming from his critics and his most jealous and desperate opponents. He also gets the opportunity to craft a legacy that is slated to include some major transformative legislation for Canada, proof that he is every bit a statesman at home as much as he is respected around the world. (And he is; at nine o'clock tonight he leaves for Europe to deliver an address before the E.U. Parliament that he was invited to give, on the sorta-small matter of *checks notes* WW3.)
Never underestimate Justin Trudeau. A lesson that so many refuse to learn, at home and abroad. Whodathunkit? The humble Canadian schoolteacher, and not the crooked real estate salesman (and Russian asshat) from New York City, is the most tremendous, terrific broker of... the art of the deal.
Now that's what I call Yuuuuuge!
And now for the official national anthem of the holy writ of Shania Law.
